Jun 25, 2022·edited Jun 25, 2022Liked by Warner Mendenhall
It was excellent! Thanks Warner for being on. I hope many are able to view. Both Tice and Ben are amazing, articulate young men who give me hope for the future.
After the broadcast, I went on to their site and read many of the posted documents that came from discovery. Totally shocking to say the least.
I have been involved in supporting college students who are opposing mandates. In the flurry of insanity last year I wish we all could have organized across universities and formed some sort of coalition.
It's shocking how many universities hid behind the non-existent OSHA mess as a way to justify.
My spouse, a science professor, retired early from a NE Ohio university partly due to the mandates. The administration asked him last fall after he announced that this would be his last year if he would teach the during the upcoming fall as is customary for most newly retired faculty. He said no and told them why - mandates not acceptable and he wasn't going to be tested.
I have also suggested to Kirsch to have on university administrators who opposed the mandates - why they opposed, what they "gave up" to oppose, how their campus reacted, etc. If you find this interesting or of value, if you could float this idea or similar, I'd appreciate it.
I have spoken to administrators. Most are not willing to go public. If you know of some who would go public, I would love to talk to them. I am buried in work right now so you can email me at warner@warnermendenhall.com or call Kay to set up a call.
Unfortunately I personally don't know any administrators who didn't mandate. I do know faculty who were protesting and helping students protest - I know one faculty member who quit over it - NE Ohio school. I will reach out to them and see if they would be willing to speak up.
This is concerning....
The Chronicle of Higher Education published this article today titled "Colleges' Vaccine Mandates Significantly Decreased Covid Deaths, Study Finds" and references a "working paper" from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
One of the paper's authors, an economics assistant professor from Miami U, states in the article that she sees this as a key potential benefit for vaccinating students.
I have briefly skimmed some of the paper - too early in the day to deep dive. Clearly the incorrect reporting of cv death data has an impact on this as well as others.
Someone suggested to share with el gato malo re the college mandates decrease community cv death. Here's the response.
first pass based on quick skim: this appears to be such a mess of confounds, cross contamination, and missing variables as to be outright garbage best i can tell. it's not quite "bangladesh mask study bad" but it's not far off.
it fails to control for sample rate on testing to drive cases. it uses "presence of mandate" instead of "actual vaccination level of students" which seems to badly taint the comparator group.
it also fails to control for region, climate and this is a MASSIVE flaw because "mandate" is near entirely in the northeast and california. (see p47) they made no reasonable attempt at matching a priori risk rates or the cross issues of things like unvaxxed and obesity having strong correlation.
they also make no attempt to control for prior regional exposure and development of natural immunity/cohort culling.
"Given these differences in county and college characteristics, our empirical approach compares
within-county changes in COVID-19 outcomes between mandate and non-mandate counties, before and after the fall 2021 semester begins." this sort of control is not terribly valid given strong seasonal signal and variance. one goes into season, another does not, and you get huge variance. NE kids are outside in late aug early sept. down south, to cluster in AC.
the study ran from early aug to mid nov. that's peak season in the south and low season in the north where mandates were high.
i'm just skimming, but it reads like mathiness substituted for sound study design.
i'm not seeing any way to take this study seriously. there is no possible way to have the slightest idea what is being measured here and yet they are using analyses suited to RCT.
it looks like another black eye for NBER. not sure why they keep wading into this. they do not seem to be doing well. they are doubtless good at stats, but dealing with complex systems with which you are unfamiliar and trying to apply sophisticates stats tools when you do not even know what the variables you're supposed to be controlling for are leads to poor outcomes.
It was excellent! Thanks Warner for being on. I hope many are able to view. Both Tice and Ben are amazing, articulate young men who give me hope for the future.
After the broadcast, I went on to their site and read many of the posted documents that came from discovery. Totally shocking to say the least.
saveohiou.com
I have been involved in supporting college students who are opposing mandates. In the flurry of insanity last year I wish we all could have organized across universities and formed some sort of coalition.
It's shocking how many universities hid behind the non-existent OSHA mess as a way to justify.
My spouse, a science professor, retired early from a NE Ohio university partly due to the mandates. The administration asked him last fall after he announced that this would be his last year if he would teach the during the upcoming fall as is customary for most newly retired faculty. He said no and told them why - mandates not acceptable and he wasn't going to be tested.
I have also suggested to Kirsch to have on university administrators who opposed the mandates - why they opposed, what they "gave up" to oppose, how their campus reacted, etc. If you find this interesting or of value, if you could float this idea or similar, I'd appreciate it.
I have spoken to administrators. Most are not willing to go public. If you know of some who would go public, I would love to talk to them. I am buried in work right now so you can email me at warner@warnermendenhall.com or call Kay to set up a call.
Unfortunately I personally don't know any administrators who didn't mandate. I do know faculty who were protesting and helping students protest - I know one faculty member who quit over it - NE Ohio school. I will reach out to them and see if they would be willing to speak up.
This is concerning....
The Chronicle of Higher Education published this article today titled "Colleges' Vaccine Mandates Significantly Decreased Covid Deaths, Study Finds" and references a "working paper" from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
One of the paper's authors, an economics assistant professor from Miami U, states in the article that she sees this as a key potential benefit for vaccinating students.
I have briefly skimmed some of the paper - too early in the day to deep dive. Clearly the incorrect reporting of cv death data has an impact on this as well as others.
https://www.chronicle.com/article/colleges-vaccine-mandates-significantly-decreased-covid-deaths-study-finds
https://www.nber.org/papers/w30303
Someone suggested to share with el gato malo re the college mandates decrease community cv death. Here's the response.
first pass based on quick skim: this appears to be such a mess of confounds, cross contamination, and missing variables as to be outright garbage best i can tell. it's not quite "bangladesh mask study bad" but it's not far off.
it fails to control for sample rate on testing to drive cases. it uses "presence of mandate" instead of "actual vaccination level of students" which seems to badly taint the comparator group.
it also fails to control for region, climate and this is a MASSIVE flaw because "mandate" is near entirely in the northeast and california. (see p47) they made no reasonable attempt at matching a priori risk rates or the cross issues of things like unvaxxed and obesity having strong correlation.
they also make no attempt to control for prior regional exposure and development of natural immunity/cohort culling.
"Given these differences in county and college characteristics, our empirical approach compares
within-county changes in COVID-19 outcomes between mandate and non-mandate counties, before and after the fall 2021 semester begins." this sort of control is not terribly valid given strong seasonal signal and variance. one goes into season, another does not, and you get huge variance. NE kids are outside in late aug early sept. down south, to cluster in AC.
the study ran from early aug to mid nov. that's peak season in the south and low season in the north where mandates were high.
i'm just skimming, but it reads like mathiness substituted for sound study design.
i'm not seeing any way to take this study seriously. there is no possible way to have the slightest idea what is being measured here and yet they are using analyses suited to RCT.
it looks like another black eye for NBER. not sure why they keep wading into this. they do not seem to be doing well. they are doubtless good at stats, but dealing with complex systems with which you are unfamiliar and trying to apply sophisticates stats tools when you do not even know what the variables you're supposed to be controlling for are leads to poor outcomes.
Comment in this substack https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-the-cdc-data-and-the-cdc-itself/comments
FYI - Typo in the spelling of Tyce’s name. It was an excellent show. I’ve shared it out but will go back and update with the link to their website.